Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 52.46%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 20.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.01%) and 1-2 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Danubio win it was 1-0 (8.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Progreso in this match.
