Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 36.38%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 34.56% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.51%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (11.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
