Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 37.31%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 34.77% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.92%) and 0-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (10.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.