SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.36%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.61%), while for a Racing de Montevideo win it was 0-1 (9.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
49.36% ( 0.17) | 28.43% ( -0.11) | 22.2% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 39.94% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.3% ( 0.3) | 64.7% ( -0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.32% ( 0.21) | 83.68% ( -0.21) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.38% ( 0.22) | 26.61% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.15% ( 0.3) | 61.84% ( -0.3) |
| Racing de Montevideo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.43% ( 0.13) | 45.56% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.62% ( 0.1) | 81.38% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Racing de Montevideo |
| 1-0 @ 16.05% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.35% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.69% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.69% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.75% Total : 49.36% | 1-1 @ 12.61% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 12.12% ( -0.14)2-2 @ 3.28% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.41% Total : 28.42% | 0-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 4.96% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.75% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.68% Total : 22.2% |
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