SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 75.86%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 7.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.7%) and 0-3 (11.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.61%), while for a Cerrito win it was 1-0 (3.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerrito | Draw | Nacional |
7.68% ( 1.33) | 16.46% ( 1.43) | 75.86% ( -2.76) |
| Both teams to score 38.07% ( 2.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.87% ( -1.28) | 47.13% ( 1.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.64% ( -1.2) | 69.37% ( 1.2) |
| Cerrito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 42.62% ( 2.84) | 57.38% ( -2.84) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.75% ( 1.51) | 89.26% ( -1.51) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.32% ( -1.03) | 10.68% ( 1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.43% ( -2.37) | 34.57% ( 2.37) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerrito | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.46) 2-1 @ 2.12% ( 0.37)2-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.2)Other @ 1.22% Total : 7.68% | 1-1 @ 7.61% ( 0.73) 0-0 @ 6.13% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 2.37% ( 0.32)Other @ 0.35% Total : 16.46% | 0-2 @ 15.33% ( -0.55) 0-1 @ 13.7% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 11.43% ( -0.95)1-2 @ 8.52% ( 0.46)0-4 @ 6.39% ( -0.85)1-3 @ 6.35% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 3.55% ( -0.12)0-5 @ 2.86% ( -0.53)2-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.17)1-5 @ 1.59% ( -0.13)0-6 @ 1.07% ( -0.26)2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.32% Total : 75.85% |
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