SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.09%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 18.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.82%) and 2-1 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12%), while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (8.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Danubio |
54.09% ( -0.42) | 26.93% ( 0) | 18.97% ( 0.41) |
| Both teams to score 39.63% ( 0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.03% ( 0.39) | 62.96% ( -0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.56% ( 0.28) | 82.44% ( -0.28) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.36% ( -0.01) | 23.63% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.27% ( -0.02) | 57.72% ( 0.02) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.89% ( 0.73) | 48.11% ( -0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.69% ( 0.53) | 83.31% ( -0.53) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 16.4% ( -0.24) 2-0 @ 11.82% ( -0.19)2-1 @ 8.66% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 5.69% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.05% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.28% Total : 54.08% | 1-1 @ 12% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 11.36% ( -0.17)2-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.4% Total : 26.92% | 0-1 @ 8.32% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 3.04% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.15% Total : 18.97% |
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