SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 60.98%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 15.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.37%) and 1-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 1-0 (6.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Nacional |
15.95% ( 0.57) | 23.06% ( -0.05) | 60.98% ( -0.53) |
| Both teams to score 44.27% ( 1.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.17% ( 1.08) | 53.83% ( -1.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.7% ( 0.9) | 75.29% ( -0.9) |
| Plaza Colonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.53% ( 1.43) | 46.47% ( -1.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.91% ( 1.07) | 82.08% ( -1.08) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.71% ( 0.2) | 17.29% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.37% ( 0.35) | 47.63% ( -0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Plaza Colonia | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 6.16% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.31% Total : 15.96% | 1-1 @ 10.8% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.03% ( -0.35)2-2 @ 3.63% ( 0.19)Other @ 0.59% Total : 23.06% | 0-1 @ 14.1% ( -0.5) 0-2 @ 12.37% ( -0.36)1-2 @ 9.48% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 7.24% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 5.55% ( 0.1)0-4 @ 3.18% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.44% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.12)0-5 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.45% Total : 60.97% |
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