Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 37%. A win for Cerrito had a probability of 36.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Cerrito win was 0-1 (9.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for River Plate in this match.