Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 44.53%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 27.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 0-1 (9.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
