Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 44.49%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (8.38%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.