Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 60.01%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 17.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.85%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.