Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 42.74%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 29.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (9.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.