Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 31.74% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.03%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.