Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 37.32%. A win for Villa Espanola had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Villa Espanola win was 0-1 (10.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.