Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boston River win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boston River win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.07%) and 0-2 (7.37%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (10.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.