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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 44.15%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Danubio |
28.46% ( -0.03) | 27.39% ( 0.01) | 44.15% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 47.45% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.31% ( -0.05) | 57.69% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.56% ( -0.04) | 78.44% ( 0.04) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.11% ( -0.05) | 35.9% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.33% ( -0.05) | 72.67% ( 0.05) |
| Danubio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.03% ( -0.01) | 25.98% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.01% ( -0.01) | 60.99% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Danubio |
| 1-0 @ 9.55% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.89% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.25% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.67% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.52% ( -0)Other @ 1.97% Total : 28.46% | 1-1 @ 12.87% 0-0 @ 9.32% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.45% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.39% | 0-1 @ 12.56% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.68% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.47% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.9% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.81% ( 0)2-3 @ 2% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.31% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.28% ( 0)Other @ 2.13% Total : 44.14% |
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