SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 42.86%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.55%) and 1-2 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.16%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Progreso |
28.5% ( 0.61) | 28.65% ( 0.07) | 42.86% ( -0.67) |
| Both teams to score 44.09% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.05% ( 0.02) | 61.95% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.3% ( 0.02) | 81.7% ( -0.02) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.81% ( 0.51) | 38.19% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.05% ( 0.49) | 74.96% ( -0.48) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.33% ( -0.35) | 28.67% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.52% ( -0.44) | 64.48% ( 0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Deportivo Maldonado | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 6.34% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.62% Total : 28.49% | 1-1 @ 13.16% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.94% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.57% Total : 28.63% | 0-1 @ 13.67% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 8.55% ( -0.18)1-2 @ 8.23% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 3.43% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.65% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.59% Total : 42.85% |
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