Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.25%) and 2-1 (8.23%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (10.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.

Result
Progreso	Draw	Cerro
42.02%	28.47%	29.51% ( 0)

Both teams to score 45.02% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.98% (

-0)

61.02% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.99% (

-0)

81.01% (

Progreso Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.32% (

-0)

28.68% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.5% (

-0)

64.5% (

Cerro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.13%

36.87%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.34% (

-0)

73.66% (

Score Analysis

Progreso 42.01%

Cerro 29.51%

Draw 28.46%

Progreso	Draw	Cerro
1-0 @ 13.2% 2-0 @ 8.25% 2-1 @ 8.23% 3-0 @ 3.43% 3-1 @ 3.43% 3-2 @ 1.71% 4-0 @ 1.07% 4-1 @ 1.07% Other @ 1.62% Total : 42.01%	1-1 @ 13.17% 0-0 @ 10.57% 2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.46%	0-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.57% 0-2 @ 5.26% 1-3 @ 2.19% 0-3 @ 1.75% 2-3 @ 1.37% Other @ 1.82% Total : 29.51%