SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.23%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 25.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.55%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.78%), while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Progreso |
47.23% ( -0.06) | 27.65% ( 0.02) | 25.11% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 44.45% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.64% ( -0.04) | 60.35% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.49% ( -0.03) | 80.51% ( 0.03) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.35% ( -0.05) | 25.65% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.45% ( -0.06) | 60.55% ( 0.07) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.79% ( 0.02) | 40.21% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.15% ( 0.02) | 76.84% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 14.03% 2-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.33% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.8% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.34% ( -0)Other @ 2.07% Total : 47.23% | 1-1 @ 12.78% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.31% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.96% ( -0)Other @ 0.59% Total : 27.64% | 0-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.82% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.28% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.77% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.2% Other @ 1.34% Total : 25.11% |
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