SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 36.09%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 34.66% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.43%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest River Plate win was 1-0 (12.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Cerro Largo |
34.66% ( 0.22) | 29.25% ( 0.01) | 36.09% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 44.17% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.33% ( -0.03) | 62.67% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.78% ( -0.02) | 82.23% ( 0.02) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.99% ( 0.13) | 34.01% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.31% ( 0.14) | 70.69% ( -0.14) |
| Cerro Largo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.94% ( -0.17) | 33.07% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.35% ( -0.18) | 69.66% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Cerro Largo |
| 1-0 @ 12.12% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.24% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 6.54% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.44% ( 0)Other @ 2.37% Total : 34.66% | 1-1 @ 13.42% 0-0 @ 11.24% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.01% ( -0)Other @ 0.57% Total : 29.24% | 0-1 @ 12.44% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.43% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 6.89% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.57% Total : 36.09% |
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