SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 50.94%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 23.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.91%) and 1-2 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.18%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Progreso |
23.23% ( 0.18) | 25.83% ( 0.42) | 50.94% ( -0.6) |
| Both teams to score 47.58% ( -1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.62% ( -1.41) | 55.38% ( 1.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.42% ( -1.17) | 76.58% ( 1.17) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.84% ( -0.62) | 39.16% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.13% ( -0.59) | 75.87% ( 0.59) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.21% ( -0.83) | 21.79% ( 0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.01% ( -1.28) | 54.99% ( 1.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Progreso |
| 1-0 @ 8% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 5.71% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 3.75% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 1.45% Total : 23.23% | 1-1 @ 12.18% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.46)2-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.76% Total : 25.82% | 0-1 @ 13% ( 0.38) 0-2 @ 9.91% ( 0.04)1-2 @ 9.29% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 5.03% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 4.72% ( -0.18)2-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 1.92% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 1.8% ( -0.12)Other @ 3.07% Total : 50.94% |
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