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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 42.11%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-2 (6.97%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
32.58% ( 0.19) | 25.32% ( 0.03) | 42.11% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 55.79% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.17% ( -0.09) | 47.83% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.98% ( -0.08) | 70.02% ( 0.08) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.11% ( 0.08) | 27.89% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.49% ( 0.1) | 63.51% ( -0.1) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.37% ( -0.14) | 22.63% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.75% ( -0.21) | 56.25% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Defensor Sporting |
| 1-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.14% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.25% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.83% Total : 32.58% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.68% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.31% | 0-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.9% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.97% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.41% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.45% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.22% Total : 42.11% |
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