Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 37.89%. A win for Cerrito had a probability of 35.13% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Cerrito win was 0-1 (10.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
