Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plaza Colonia win with a probability of 41.52%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 30.59% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Progreso win was 0-1 (10.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Plaza Colonia would win this match.
