Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 41.48%. A draw had a probability of 29.3% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 29.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.33%) and 2-1 (7.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.29%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (11.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Progreso in this match.
