Although they lost heavily in midweek, Birmingham have shown signs of promise in their three games prior to the Man City defeat, and we think Blues will do enough to hold their local rivals to a draw on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Women win with a probability of 57.35%. A win for Birmingham City Women had a probability of 21.5% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.3%) and 1-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Birmingham City Women win was 1-2 (5.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
