SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Mexico | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentina win with a probability of 69.71%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 10.91%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentina win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.83%) and 3-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.07%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Argentina would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Argentina | Draw | Ecuador |
69.71% ( -0.11) | 19.38% ( 0.04) | 10.91% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 41.75% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.3% ( -0.02) | 49.7% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.29% ( -0.02) | 71.71% ( 0.02) |
| Argentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.88% ( -0.03) | 13.11% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.24% ( -0.08) | 39.76% ( 0.08) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.05% ( 0.11) | 51.94% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.03% ( 0.07) | 85.97% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Argentina | Draw | Ecuador |
| 2-0 @ 14.05% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 13.83% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 9.52% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 9.21% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.23% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.83% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.17% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.96% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.29% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0)Other @ 2.52% Total : 69.69% | 1-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.81% ( 0)2-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.49% Total : 19.38% | 0-1 @ 4.46% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.02% Total : 10.91% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
