SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 55.59%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Botswana had a probability of 18.35%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.99%) and 1-2 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Botswana win it was 1-0 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Algeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Botswana | Draw | Algeria |
18.35% ( -0.15) | 26.06% ( -0.14) | 55.59% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 40.78% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.07% ( 0.28) | 60.93% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.06% ( 0.21) | 80.94% ( -0.21) |
| Botswana Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.36% ( -0.01) | 47.64% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 17.03% ( -0.01) | 82.97% ( 0.01) |
| Algeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.88% ( 0.24) | 22.12% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.51% ( 0.36) | 55.49% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Botswana | Draw | Algeria |
| 1-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 4.37% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 1.08% ( -0)Other @ 2.19% Total : 18.35% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 10.53% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 3.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.44% Total : 26.05% | 0-1 @ 15.89% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 11.99% ( 0.05)1-2 @ 8.89% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 6.03% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 4.47% ( 0.05)0-4 @ 2.28% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.68% Total : 55.58% |
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