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World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Oct 13, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos
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Chile
2 - 0
Peru

Valdes (74'), Nunez (90+1')
Brereton Diaz (49'), Pulgar (76')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Guerrero (32'), Lopez (46')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Chile 0-0 Colombia
Wednesday, September 13 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Peru 0-1 Brazil
Wednesday, September 13 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Chile 2-1 Peru

Both sides certainly have plenty of experience on this stage throughout their ranks and will be desperate for a first win of qualifying, but we see La Roja having slightly more quality running through their squad and fancy them to take all three points on home soil given the superior firepower. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chile win with a probability of 65.34%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Peru had a probability of 13.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chile win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.63%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chile would win this match.

Result
ChileDrawPeru
65.34% (-0.846 -0.85) 21.62% (0.285 0.29) 13.04% (0.564 0.56)
Both teams to score 41.56% (0.703 0.7)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.36% (0.076000000000001 0.08)53.64% (-0.073 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.86% (0.065000000000001 0.07)75.13% (-0.061999999999998 -0.06)
Chile Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.26% (-0.251 -0.25)15.73% (0.255 0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.17% (-0.468 -0.47)44.83% (0.471 0.47)
Peru Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.32% (0.979 0.98)50.67% (-0.976 -0.98)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.88% (0.656 0.66)85.12% (-0.65299999999999 -0.65)
Score Analysis
    Chile 65.33%
    Peru 13.04%
    Draw 21.62%
ChileDrawPeru
1-0 @ 14.74% (-0.17 -0.17)
2-0 @ 13.63% (-0.28 -0.28)
2-1 @ 9.27% (0.075000000000001 0.08)
3-0 @ 8.41% (-0.248 -0.25)
3-1 @ 5.71% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 3.89% (-0.149 -0.15)
4-1 @ 2.64% (-0.025 -0.02)
3-2 @ 1.94% (0.054 0.05)
5-0 @ 1.44% (-0.069 -0.07)
5-1 @ 0.98% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 2.69%
Total : 65.33%
1-1 @ 10.02% (0.165 0.16)
0-0 @ 7.97% (-0.023000000000001 -0.02)
2-2 @ 3.15% (0.113 0.11)
Other @ 0.48%
Total : 21.62%
0-1 @ 5.42% (0.137 0.14)
1-2 @ 3.41% (0.151 0.15)
0-2 @ 1.84% (0.097 0.1)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 13.04%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Chile 0-0 Colombia
Wednesday, September 13 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Uruguay 3-1 Chile
Saturday, September 9 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Bolivia 0-0 Chile
Wednesday, June 21 at 1am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Chile 5-0 Dominican Rep.
Saturday, June 17 at 1.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Chile 3-0 Cuba
Monday, June 12 at 12am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Chile 3-2 Paraguay
Tuesday, March 28 at 1.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Peru 0-1 Brazil
Wednesday, September 13 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Paraguay 0-0 Peru
Thursday, September 7 at 11.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Japan 4-1 Peru
Tuesday, June 20 at 10.55am in International Friendlies
Last Game: South Korea 0-1 Peru
Friday, June 16 at 12pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Morocco 0-0 Peru
Tuesday, March 28 at 8.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Germany 2-0 Peru
Saturday, March 25 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies


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