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World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Sep 8, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez
VN

Colombia
1 - 0
Venezuela

Borre (46')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Gonzalez (33')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Germany 0-2 Colombia
Tuesday, June 20 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Current Group B Standings P GD PTS
1Brazil4810
2Peru4-27
3Colombia4-14
4Ecuador4-13
5Venezuela4-42
All competitions
Last Game: Venezuela 1-0 Guatemala
Sunday, June 18 at 9.30pm in International Friendlies
Current Group B Standings P GD PTS
1Brazil4810
2Peru4-27
3Colombia4-14
4Ecuador4-13
5Venezuela4-42

We said: Colombia 2-0 Venezuela

Both managers are still unbeaten since taking over within the last 12 months, and despite Venezuela's struggles in qualifying in recent years, we expect to see a competitive match on Thursday. However, Colombia clearly possess greater individual quality, with Diaz in particular capable of making the difference after scoring twice in four Premier League starts for Liverpool already this season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 61.9%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 13.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.18%) and 2-1 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.96%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (6.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Colombia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Colombia.

Result
ColombiaDrawVenezuela
61.9% (0.331 0.33) 24.44% (-0.061 -0.06) 13.65% (-0.27 -0.27)
Both teams to score 36.17% (-0.423 -0.42)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.01% (-0.214 -0.21)61.99% (0.215 0.21)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.27% (-0.159 -0.16)81.73% (0.158 0.16)
Colombia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.98% (0.042999999999992 0.04)20.01% (-0.044 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.79% (0.070999999999998 0.07)52.21% (-0.069999999999993 -0.07)
Venezuela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
45.23% (-0.553 -0.55)54.77% (0.553 0.55)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.25% (-0.336 -0.34)87.75% (0.336 0.34)
Score Analysis
    Colombia 61.89%
    Venezuela 13.65%
    Draw 24.44%
ColombiaDrawVenezuela
1-0 @ 17.63% (0.16 0.16)
2-0 @ 14.18% (0.15 0.15)
2-1 @ 8.54% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-0 @ 7.61% (0.091 0.09)
3-1 @ 4.58% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 3.06% (0.04 0.04)
4-1 @ 1.84% (-0.006 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.38% (-0.03 -0.03)
5-0 @ 0.98% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 61.89%
0-0 @ 10.96% (0.090000000000002 0.09)
1-1 @ 10.61% (-0.08 -0.08)
2-2 @ 2.57% (-0.059 -0.06)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 24.44%
0-1 @ 6.6% (-0.058 -0.06)
1-2 @ 3.2% (-0.078 -0.08)
0-2 @ 1.99% (-0.051 -0.05)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 13.65%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Germany 0-2 Colombia
Tuesday, June 20 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Colombia 1-0 Iraq
Friday, June 16 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Japan 1-2 Colombia
Tuesday, March 28 at 11.20am in International Friendlies
Last Game: South Korea 2-2 Colombia
Friday, March 24 at 11am in International Friendlies
Last Game: USA 0-0 Colombia
Sunday, January 29 at 12.30am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Colombia 2-0 Paraguay
Sunday, November 20 at 1.20am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Venezuela 1-0 Guatemala
Sunday, June 18 at 9.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Venezuela 1-0 Honduras
Friday, June 16 at 1am in International Friendlies
Last Game: Uzbekistan 1-1 Venezuela
Tuesday, March 28 at 7pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Saudi Arabia 1-2 Venezuela
Friday, March 24 at 7pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Venezuela 1-2 Syria
Sunday, November 20 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Venezuela 2-2 Panama
Tuesday, November 15 at 5pm in International Friendlies


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