SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Croatia | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Morocco | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Canada | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 37.78%. A win for Canada had a probability of 34.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Canada win was 0-1 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Croatia | Draw | Canada |
37.78% ( -0.04) | 27.27% ( 0.04) | 34.96% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 50% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.51% ( -0.15) | 55.49% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.33% ( -0.12) | 76.67% ( 0.12) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.58% ( -0.09) | 28.42% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.82% ( -0.12) | 64.18% ( 0.12) |
| Canada Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.86% ( -0.07) | 30.14% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.71% ( -0.09) | 66.29% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Croatia | Draw | Canada |
| 1-0 @ 10.77% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.78% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.84% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.72% Total : 37.77% | 1-1 @ 12.92% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.9% Total : 27.26% | 0-1 @ 10.27% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.75% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.16% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.46% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 2.33% Total : 34.95% |
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