SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ecuador | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Senegal | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Qatar | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ecuador | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Senegal | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Qatar | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Netherlands win with a probability of 47.96%. A win for Senegal had a probability of 26.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (8.76%). The likeliest Senegal win was 1-0 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Netherlands would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Senegal | Draw | Netherlands |
26.39% ( 6.85) | 25.65% ( 1.77) | 47.96% ( -8.62) |
| Both teams to score 51.11% ( 2.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.74% ( -0.4) | 52.26% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.04% ( -0.35) | 73.96% ( 0.35) |
| Senegal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.36% ( 6.29) | 34.64% ( -6.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.64% ( 6.13) | 71.36% ( -6.12) |
| Netherlands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.2% ( -3.64) | 21.8% ( 3.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.99% ( -5.87) | 55% ( 5.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| Senegal | Draw | Netherlands |
| 1-0 @ 8.01% ( 1.37) 2-1 @ 6.46% ( 1.4)2-0 @ 4.24% ( 1.28)3-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.78)3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.46)3-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.62)Other @ 2.16% Total : 26.39% | 1-1 @ 12.19% ( 0.87) 0-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.61)Other @ 0.98% Total : 25.64% | 0-1 @ 11.5% ( -1.17) 1-2 @ 9.29% ( -0.37)0-2 @ 8.76% ( -2.05)1-3 @ 4.72% ( -0.78)0-3 @ 4.45% ( -1.7)2-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.8% ( -0.55)0-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.93)2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.3% Total : 47.95% |
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