SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ivory Coast win with a probability of 65.03%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Gabon had a probability of 14.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ivory Coast win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for a Gabon win it was 0-1 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ivory Coast would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ivory Coast | Draw | Gabon |
65.03% ( -0.06) | 20% ( 0.02) | 14.97% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 51.39% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.93% ( 0) | 43.07% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.52% | 65.47% ( 0) |
| Ivory Coast Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.53% ( -0.01) | 12.47% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.57% ( -0.03) | 38.43% ( 0.04) |
| Gabon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.71% ( 0.05) | 41.29% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.19% ( 0.05) | 77.81% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ivory Coast | Draw | Gabon |
| 2-0 @ 11.15% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 10.71% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.74% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.85% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.03% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.57% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.58% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.48% ( -0)Other @ 3.33% Total : 65.01% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.15% 2-2 @ 4.37% ( 0.01)Other @ 1% Total : 20% | 0-1 @ 4.55% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.29% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.69% Total : 14.97% |
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