SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gabon win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Burundi had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gabon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Burundi win was 1-0 (11.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gabon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Burundi | Draw | Gabon |
32.86% ( 0.14) | 28.57% ( 0.02) | 38.57% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 45.81% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.44% ( -0.04) | 60.55% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.34% ( -0.03) | 80.66% ( 0.03) |
| Burundi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.86% ( 0.08) | 34.14% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.17% ( 0.09) | 70.83% ( -0.09) |
| Gabon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.56% ( -0.11) | 30.43% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.36% ( -0.14) | 66.64% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burundi | Draw | Gabon |
| 1-0 @ 11.16% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.14% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.56% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.52% ( 0)Other @ 2.32% Total : 32.85% | 1-1 @ 13.28% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 10.39% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0)Other @ 0.65% Total : 28.57% | 0-1 @ 12.36% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 7.35% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.13% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.29% Total : 38.57% |
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