SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 90.28%. A draw had a probability of 7.3% and a win for Vanuatu had a probability of 2.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 3-0 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13%) and 4-0 (11.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.45%), while for a Vanuatu win it was 0-1 (1.05%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New Zealand | Draw | Vanuatu |
90.28% ( -0.16) | 7.3% ( 0.12) | 2.42% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 34.07% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.98% ( -0.53) | 28.01% ( 0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.24% ( -0.66) | 48.76% ( 0.66) |
| New Zealand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.29% ( -0.11) | 3.71% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 84.07% ( -0.34) | 15.92% ( 0.34) |
| Vanuatu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 35.38% ( -0.22) | 64.62% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 7.16% ( -0.1) | 92.83% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| New Zealand | Draw | Vanuatu |
| 3-0 @ 14.28% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 13% ( 0.19)4-0 @ 11.76% ( -0.03)1-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.18)5-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 6.24% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 5.68% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.05)6-0 @ 4.26% ( -0.08)5-1 @ 3.39% ( -0.07)7-0 @ 2% ( -0.06)6-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.55% Total : 90.27% | 1-1 @ 3.45% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 2.4% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 1.24% ( -0)Other @ 0.22% Total : 7.3% | 0-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.37% Total : 2.42% |
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