SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 83.71%. A draw had a probability of 10.9% and a win for Samoa had a probability of 5.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 0-3 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.38%) and 0-4 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.1%), while for a Samoa win it was 2-1 (1.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-8 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Samoa | Draw | New Zealand |
5.42% ( 0.68) | 10.87% ( 1.25) | 83.71% ( -1.93) |
| Both teams to score 46.63% ( -1.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.17% ( -3.55) | 28.83% ( 3.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.23% ( -4.49) | 49.77% ( 4.49) |
| Samoa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.05% ( -0.58) | 50.95% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.69% ( -0.39) | 85.3% ( 0.39) |
| New Zealand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.06% ( -0.93) | 4.94% ( 0.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 80.21% ( -2.88) | 19.79% ( 2.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| Samoa | Draw | New Zealand |
| 2-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.19) 1-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.31)Other @ 2.01% Total : 5.42% | 1-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.65) 2-2 @ 2.59% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 2.52% ( 0.5)Other @ 0.66% Total : 10.87% | 0-3 @ 11.41% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 11.38% ( 0.94)0-4 @ 8.59% ( -0.42)1-3 @ 7.7% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 7.68% ( 0.51)0-1 @ 7.57% ( 1.07)1-4 @ 5.79% ( -0.39)0-5 @ 5.17% ( -0.63)1-5 @ 3.48% ( -0.49)2-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.04)0-6 @ 2.59% ( -0.52)2-4 @ 1.95% ( -0.17)1-6 @ 1.75% ( -0.38)2-5 @ 1.18% ( -0.19)0-7 @ 1.11% ( -0.31)Other @ 3.77% Total : 83.7% |
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