Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Scotland win with a probability of 51.82%. A win for Israel had a probability of 25.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Scotland win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Israel win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Scotland would win this match.
