SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Dusseldorf win with a probability of 50.49%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 26.5% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortuna Dusseldorf would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Dusseldorf | Draw | St Pauli |
50.49% ( 0.22) | 23.02% ( -0.01) | 26.5% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 59.84% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.19% ( -0.1) | 40.81% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.81% ( -0.1) | 63.19% ( 0.1) |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.68% ( 0.04) | 16.32% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.1% ( 0.08) | 45.9% ( -0.08) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.5% ( -0.2) | 28.5% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.73% ( -0.25) | 64.27% ( 0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf | Draw | St Pauli |
| 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.43% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 4.62% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.65% ( -0)5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.45% Total : 50.49% | 1-1 @ 10.58% 2-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.01% | 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.84% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.66% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.52% Total : 26.5% |
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