Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 39.92%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 34.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Holstein Kiel would win this match.
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