Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nuremberg win with a probability of 38.59%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 36.88% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nuremberg win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.83%) and 2-0 (5.85%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.
0.1) 
-0.04) 
