Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 47.63%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.26%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 1-2 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Holstein Kiel would win this match.
