Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 17.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 0-1 (5.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
0.62) 
-0.04) 
