Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 41.5%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 34.8% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.24%) and 2-0 (5.93%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
0.13) 
-0.02) 
