Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 50.96%. A win for Fortuna Dusseldorf had a probability of 24.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.94%). The likeliest Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 0-1 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.02) 
