Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Dusseldorf win with a probability of 56.76%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 22% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.15%) and 1-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortuna Dusseldorf would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.13) 
