SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 40.91%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 35.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.75%) and 0-2 (5.61%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.
| Result | ||
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | NAC Breda |
35.72% ( 0.1) | 23.37% ( -0.04) | 40.91% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 63.68% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.08% ( 0.25) | 37.92% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.83% ( 0.27) | 60.17% ( -0.26) |
| MVV Maastricht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.58% ( 0.17) | 21.42% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.58% ( 0.25) | 54.42% ( -0.25) |
| NAC Breda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.03% ( 0.09) | 18.97% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.5% ( 0.14) | 50.5% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | NAC Breda |
| 2-1 @ 8.02% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.26% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 4.82% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.12% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.42% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 35.72% | 1-1 @ 10.4% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.67% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.06% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.36% | 1-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 5.61% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.79% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.69% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.99% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.54% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.29% ( -0)Other @ 3.47% Total : 40.91% |
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