Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 62.43%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 17.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 1-0 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a MVV Maastricht win it was 1-2 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.
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