Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 39.56%. A win for Lahti had a probability of 33.89% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Lahti win was 1-0 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.
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