Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 40.97%. A win for Lahti had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Lahti win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.