SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 43.4%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 33.77% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.45%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
43.4% ( 0.09) | 22.83% ( -0) | 33.77% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 65.21% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.3% ( -0.04) | 35.7% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.23% ( -0.04) | 57.76% ( 0.04) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.97% ( 0.02) | 17.02% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 52.84% ( 0.04) | 47.16% ( -0.04) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.59% ( -0.07) | 21.41% ( 0.07) |
